On the hourly chart, GBP/USD consolidated below the 1.3349–1.3355 support level on Thursday, but failed to extend its decline and returned to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3408 by the end of the day. A consolidation above this level would allow the pound to continue rising toward the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level. A rebound from the 1.3408 level would once again support expectations of a decline toward the 1.3349–1.3355 level and lower.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical news to launch a full-scale advance. The most recently completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. The geopolitical backdrop is currently highly uncertain, giving neither bulls nor bears a clear advantage. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after the June 5 high is surpassed.

Thursday's news background consisted solely of geopolitical developments. From the very beginning of the day, traders favored selling GBP/USD and buying the U.S. dollar after Donald Trump stated that Iran would be destroyed in the near future. His comments were supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, by the evening, the U.S. president's tone had become more positive. He abandoned his plans to "tear Iran apart" and unexpectedly stated that the sides could soon reach an excellent agreement. His remarks caused genuine confusion in Tehran, which issued an official statement this morning saying it had no idea what the U.S. president was referring to. According to Iranian officials, no agreement currently exists, and negotiations have been suspended due to the escalation of the conflict this week. Thus, the market undoubtedly reacted to Trump's comments regarding a deal with Iran, but did not place significant confidence in them. For several weeks now, Trump has been promising a peace agreement, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to hostilities. In reality, the world continues to witness the exact opposite. Therefore, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327 and advanced toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3429. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and imply a moderate decline toward 1.3327. A consolidation above 1.3429 would increase the likelihood of further gains for the pound. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,291, while short positions declined by 13,471. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 110,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, developments will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to the prospect of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achievable, although it is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 12 contains only one event, which I do not consider significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be negligible.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were possible following a rebound from the 1.3408 level on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3349–1.3355 level. The target was reached. New short positions may be considered on another rebound from 1.3408 or on a close below the 1.3349–1.3355 level.

Long positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.3349–1.3355 support level, targeting 1.3408. Alternatively, long positions may be opened after a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.