Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.48 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had fallen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test at 159.48 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, prompting the implementation of Scenario #2 to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair only rose by 15 pips.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, driven by ambiguous statements from President Trump on the Middle East. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the main issue currently impacting market participants. However, the main pressure on the USD/JPY pair is now coming from statements made by Japanese officials. Concerns about a sharp weakening of the national currency, which could negatively affect the country's economy, have led to discussions about potential currency intervention. Such comments, even if preliminary, create market expectations and influence trading behavior, prompting participants to take profits on the pair. While the geopolitical events reported by Trump create a background of uncertainty, the internal concerns of Japanese central banks have become the dominant factor. The anticipation of possible market intervention to support the yen's exchange rate creates a substantial deterrent to the pair rising above the 160 level.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 159.77 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 160.10 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.10, I plan to exit the long positions and immediately open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.52 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 159.77 and 160.10.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.52 level (the red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.18 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.77 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 159.52 and 159.18.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.